Snippets about: Decision Making
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How To Be A Little Less Certain
Manson offers some suggestions for becoming more skeptical and open-minded:
- Ask yourself "What if I'm wrong?" as often as possible. Consider alternate explanations.
- Seeing things from a different perspective takes practice. Notice when you feel threatened by new ideas.
- Argue for the other side, even if you disagree. This exercise weakens old beliefs.
- Think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Very few things are 100% true or false.
Embracing uncertainty doesn't mean becoming totally relativistic or believing nothing. It means staying humble and curious, and being willing to update your views based on evidence. Responsible people can disagree.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck
Author: Mark Manson
Recruiting Others To Debias Us
Ideally, we would just be able to recognize and overcome biases like self-serving bias through sheer force of will. But these patterns of thinking are so ingrained that individual willpower is rarely enough to change them. A better solution is to recruit others to help us see our blind spots.
Surround yourself with people who are on a "truthseeking" mission and aren't afraid to challenge you if your fielding of outcomes seems biased. Ideally, gather a group with diverse perspectives who are all committed to being open-minded, giving credit where due, and exploring alternative interpretations of events. Use them to vet your decision-making process, not just focus on outcomes.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
We Imagine Salient Details And Neglect Context
When imagining a potential future event, like a job change or relationship, our brains tend to focus heavily on the most salient details (exciting projects at the new job, romantic dates with the new partner) while neglecting the mundane details and broader life context (boring meetings at the new job, arguments with the new partner).
To make better decisions, try to imagine the full context of the potential event. Don't just focus on the most exciting highlights in isolation. Mentally simulate how it will interact with other parts of your daily life. Consciously fill in details beyond the most salient ones. The extra mental work can pay off with a more realistic imagined experience to inform your choices.
Section: 3, Chapter: 4
Book: Stumbling on Happiness
Author: Daniel Gilbert
Vanity Metrics vs Actionable Metrics
Vanity metrics are dangerous because they give a rosy picture of the business, even if no real progress is being made. Examples include total registered users, raw pageviews, and number of downloads. These metrics tend to go "up and to the right" regardless of the actual business performance.
Actionable metrics, on the other hand, clearly demonstrate cause and effect. They focus on the parts of the product customers interact with and tie them to business results. If a change is made to the product, an actionable metric will immediately reflect any positive or negative impact. Actionable metrics are the foundation for learning what's working and what's not.
Section: 2, Chapter: 7
Book: The Lean Startup
Author: Eric Ries
Discerning The Vital Few From The Trivial Many
- Explore and evaluate a broad set of options before committing.
- Eliminate the nonessentials to make execution of the vital things almost effortless.
- It's not about just getting things done, but getting the right things done.
- Always ask "Is this the very most important thing I should be doing with my time and resources right now?"
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown