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Could A New Social Technology Save Us From Runaway Mimetic Desire?

History has seen two major social "technologies" that helped control negative mimesis:

  1. The scapegoat mechanism, which channeled violent rivalries into the sacrifice of a single victim. It temporarily unites communities against a common enemy.
  2. The market economy, which transforms many rivalries into economic competition. Adversaries fight for market share, not to the death.

As both these systems weaken, a "third invention" may be needed - some new social mechanism to contain mimetic violence. Possibilities include:

  • Gamified marketplaces that reward pro-social behavior
  • Massive online communities organized by self-transcending values
  • A resurgence of ritual and religion in shared physical spaces

Section: 1, Chapter: 8

Book: Wanting

Author: Luke Burgis

Humans And Computers Are Complements

Many people worry that computers will put people out of work. But in reality, technology is improving productivity and helping people do higher-leverage work. In many fields, the most valuable companies are those that combine the strengths of computers and humans:

  • Palantir uses AI to flag suspicious activity but has human analysts make judgment calls
  • LinkedIn uses automated data aggregation but human curation and editing
  • Hybrid human-computer solutions are underrated relative to complete automation

Instead of trying to replace people entirely, the most valuable companies will ask "How can computers help humans solve hard problems?"

Section: 1, Chapter: 12

Book: Zero to One

Author: Peter Thiel

Universal Basic Income As A Solution

One proposed solution to the threat of mass unemployment caused by automation is universal basic income (UBI):

  • The government would tax a portion of the immense wealth generated by artificial intelligence and use it to provide all citizens with a guaranteed livable income, regardless of whether they work or not.
  • This could help prevent mass joblessness from leading to total economic and social collapse. Even if most people lost their jobs to machines, they would still have enough income to meet their basic needs and consume products and services.
  • UBI could be combined with universal free education, enabling the unemployed to gain new skills for the remaining human jobs. It could also be supplemented with socially useful make-work or jobs focused on human interaction.
  • However, UBI may not give unemployed people a sense of meaning and social status previously provided by jobs. Societies may need to radically change how they view work, leisure and the purpose of life as automation progresses.

Section: 1, Chapter: 4

Book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

AI Can Decouple Education From The Factory Model Of Schooling

The authors discuss how AI could enable a transformation of the education system from the current "factory model" where students progress based on age to a personalized model where each student receives customized instruction based on their individual learning needs and pace. Key points:

  • In the factory model, the curriculum is tied to the student's age and grade rather than their individual progress, and teachers deliver one-size-fits-all instruction
  • AI-powered adaptive learning systems can predict the optimal next lesson for each student based on their performance, enabling them to progress at their own pace
  • Realizing this vision requires not just better AI but a redesign of the education system, including changes to student grouping, pedagogy, teacher training, facilities, etc.

Section: 2, Chapter: 6

Book: Power and Prediction

Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

The Sexbot Makers Are Coming For Your Desires

Some futurists predict humans will be having more sex with robots than each other by 2050. Sexbot manufacturers are already mimicking human courtship and sexual desire in their products. As algorithms get better at predicting and shaping our wants, human agency is at risk.

However, desire can never be fully reduced to data. Thick desires will always exceed AI's grasp. By recognizing the mimetic nature of many fabricated desires, we can resist their creep. We must become the authors of our own desires. This starts with questioning the origin of our wants. Why do we really want what we want? With self-awareness, we can cultivate the thick desires that make us fully human.

Section: 1, Chapter: 8

Book: Wanting

Author: Luke Burgis

AI Is Revolutionizing The Innovation Process Itself

The authors argue that AI's most profound impact may be on the process of innovation and invention itself. Key points:

  • AI enables faster and cheaper hypothesis generation and testing, accelerating the innovation cycle
  • AI-powered tools like AlphaFold are dramatically reducing the time and cost of key innovation steps like protein structure prediction
  • Just as previous research tools like microscopes enabled the discovery of the germ theory of disease, AI is a "new method of invention" that will have cascading effects on multiple domains

Section: 3, Chapter: 9

Book: Power and Prediction

Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

AI Requires A Shift From Deterministic To Probabilistic Thinking

Adopting AI requires a shift from deterministic to probabilistic thinking in decision-making. Some key mindset changes:

  • Embrace uncertainty and accept that all predictions are probabilistic, rather than expecting definitive answers
  • Think in terms of expected value, weighing the probability of different outcomes rather than trying to eliminate all risk
  • Be transparent about the confidence level of predictions and the potential for error, rather than presenting predictions as certain
  • Build processes to periodically retrain models and update predictions as new data becomes available
  • Develop ethical frameworks and oversight mechanisms to ensure predictions are applied with appropriate human judgment

Section: 5, Chapter: 14

Book: Power and Prediction

Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

AI Shifts Power To Those With The Best Judgment, Not The Best Predictions

The authors illustrate AI's impact on the allocation of power with the case of the Flint, Michigan water crisis.

  • City officials initially ignored data showing high lead levels in the water supply, relying on flawed testing and flawed judgment
  • Outside researchers used AI to predict which homes were likely to have lead pipes and successfully pressured officials to target remediation efforts based on their predictions
  • The researchers' models were technically superior to the city's testing methods, but the key factor was that the researchers had better judgment about how to act on the predictions
  • Ultimately, power over the response shifted from city officials to a court-appointed monitor, who had the authority to override officials' flawed judgment and act on the researchers' predictions The case illustrates how AI can shift decision-making power to those with superior judgment, even if they don't have the best predictions or the formal authority.

Section: 5, Chapter: 15

Book: Power and Prediction

Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

The Ocean Of Consciousness

As humans dabble with novel technologies like psychedelics, brain-computer interfaces, and AI, we are exploring the frontiers of consciousness - a terra incognita of the mind.

Humanity may be standing on the shore of a vast ocean of potential mental states - an "option space" of consciousness currently beyond our reach or even imagination. Our normal waking experience could be but a small island in this sea.

Glimpses of this larger landscape filter in through altered states and mystical experiences:

  • Psychedelics like LSD and psilocybin can induce ego dissolution and a sense of cosmic unity
  • Meditation practices aim for states of "pure awareness" distinct from our default mode
  • Near-death experiences often involve feelings of leaving the body and encountering otherworldly realms

Section: 3, Chapter: 10

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Humans Lose Their Economic Value

As artificial intelligence advances, machines may soon be able to outperform humans at most cognitive tasks. Robots and 3D printers could produce most of the products and services that people need. If this happens, the majority of humans may lose their economic value. The economy wouldn't need their labor or purchasing power anymore. A small elite may own the all-powerful algorithms and robot factories, making unprecedented profits. But the masses may become an economically irrelevant "useless class." Inequality could skyrocket to previously unthinkable levels.

Section: 1, Chapter: 2

Book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Education In An Age Of Accelerating Change

In the past, schools focused on providing students with information and specific skills for lifelong careers. However, in a world where knowledge is instantly accessible online and skills quickly become obsolete, this model is outdated. The most important skills now are the ability to keep learning, to think critically and to adapt flexibly to a rapidly changing world.

Education should shift towards teaching these meta-skills that will remain crucial even as individual technologies and industries are disrupted. Less time should be spent on memorizing facts, and more on learning how to find reliable information, distinguish truth from falsehood, understand different perspectives, and update one's beliefs based on evidence. Emotional intelligence and social skills that help people collaborate will also be increasingly vital.

Section: 5, Chapter: 19

Book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

A New Human Agenda

In the 21st century, humankind is likely to make a serious attempt to gain happiness, immortality, and god-like powers.

We are now at a point where we need to set a new agenda for ourselves. Having reduced mortality from starvation, disease, and violence, our next targets are likely to be extending life span, prolonging youth, and enhancing our cognitive and physical abilities. Science and technology will play a crucial role in achieving these goals.

This journey towards divinity may actually end up making us less humane. The more god-like we aspire to be, the less we may value mortal concerns. Life and death, happiness and suffering, may all become trivial matters for upgraded humans. There could emerge a new superhuman elite, far removed from the concerns and values of today.

Section: 1, Chapter: 1

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Surviving in a Dataist World

Dataist principles are already implicit in the way data giants like Google and Facebook operate. And as they offer us more knowledge, convenience, health and power, the Dataist creed is spreading:

  • Governments are being asked to open more databases to the public
  • We increasingly see our lives through the lens of data - from the steps we track to the memories we post online

Yet Dataism brings its own risks:

  • The loss of human agency to algorithmic "black boxes"
  • The erosion of privacy and individual liberty
  • The specter of data-driven discrimination and oppression

To survive and thrive in a Dataist world, we must grapple with what makes us human in an age of intelligent machines. We will need to cultivate wisdom and ethics alongside tech - to become not just the most knowledgeable civilization in history, but also the most humane.

Section: 3, Chapter: 11

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Navigating the Ocean of Consciousness

As our understanding of the brain advances, we may gain the ability to cartograph this ocean of consciousness - to induce, study, and apply novel mental states. This could lead to:

  • New therapies for mental disorders like depression and PTSD
  • Enhanced creativity, empathy, and insight
  • Spiritual experiences on demand, challenging traditional religions

However, such powers also raise risks:

  • Psychological damage or addiction from uncontrolled experimentation
  • Political oppression through mind control
  • The existential threat of a "bad trip" on a global scale

To navigate this ocean, we will need new maps and manuals of the mind - a mature science of consciousness to guide us. And we must grapple with the philosophical and ethical implications of a world in which the very nature of experience becomes malleable.

The exploration of inner space may prove as consequential for humanity as our journey into outer space - and the two may ultimately converge. As we venture out into the stars, we may discover that the universe is stranger - and more deeply infused with mind - than we ever imagined possible.

Section: 3, Chapter: 10

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

As powerful as superforecasters are today, the future may belong to supersmart algorithms. Human Gut may soon meet Artificial Intuition as silicon superpredictors absorb the combined wisdom of carbon-based superforecasters.

IBM's Watson, for instance, can comb through millions of medical records to predict disease progression far faster and more accurately than doctors. Similar systems could soon be forecasting currency fluctuations, climate change impacts, and election results.

Still, humans will likely remain essential - not as solo forecasters, but as partners for AI. The key will be focusing human insight on what machines can't do well: Probing assumptions, generating novel scenarios, and making meaning from raw data. The result may be an "augmented intelligence" greater than either alone.

Section: 1, Chapter: 11

Book: Superforecasting

Author: Philip Tetlock

The Dataist Creed

Even as humanism faces existential threats from AI, a new ideology is emerging that may come to dominate our century - Dataism. Its central tenets are:

  1. Data is the supreme value - the world consists of data flows, and the value of any phenomenon lies in its contribution to data processing. From this perspective: An organism is simply an algorithm and its value lies in processing data; A society is a system for harvesting and analyzing data.
  2. Humans are no longer the most important data processors - the baton is passing to computers, which are far better at crunching information than biological brains. As AI advances, algorithms will know us better than we know ourselves, making human decision-making obsolete. Humans will merge with technology to stay relevant, blurring the line between organic and artificial intelligence
  3. Bringing more and more data online is the supreme good - information wants to be free. All barriers to the flow of data should be removed. Privacy is theft from the data commons, free speech and transparency are sacred, and expanding the internet of things is a moral imperative

Section: 3, Chapter: 11

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

The Real Risk Of Artificial Intelligence

As artificial intelligence grows more sophisticated, many people worry about sci-fi scenarios where sentient robots become conscious and decide to rebel against humanity. However, this fear misses the actual risks of AI and attributes too much human-like autonomy to machines.

The more likely danger is that AI will empower human actors in dangerous ways. Authoritarian governments may use AI to create unprecedented surveillance states that can track citizens' every move. Terrorists and criminals may use AI to carry out more destructive attacks and scams. Corporations may use AI to manipulate consumers' choices and exploit their data. In all these cases, the threat comes not from machines becoming autonomous agents, but from the humans deploying the machines for their own purposes.

Section: 4, Chapter: 18

Book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

AI Navigation Apps Could Disrupt The Economics Of Airport Retail

Airport operators should be wary of the disruptive potential of AI-powered navigation apps like Waze and Google Maps. Key considerations:

  • These apps can provide increasingly accurate, personalized predictions of travel time to the airport, reducing the need for passengers to budget large uncertainty buffers
  • As passengers become more confident in "just in time" airport arrival, demand for in-terminal retail and dining may fall significantly
  • Airport operators should explore ways to actively partner with navigation apps to shape behavior and preserve retail revenues, rather than being passive victims of disruption

Section: 2, Chapter: 5

Book: Power and Prediction

Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

The Future Of Desire Will Be Shaped By Mimesis

The things we will want in the future depend on three factors:

  1. Past desires: Cultural desires are growing more mimetic and unstable, as evidenced by rising political polarization, social media mob dynamics, market volatility, etc.
  2. Present choices: We face a crisis of desire. Will we scapegoat others or do the hard work of transforming relationships and systems? Will we seek quick fixes or lasting fulfillment?
  3. Future influences: New social inventions will be needed to channel mimetic desire in healthy directions. Previous ones like ritual scapegoating and economic competition are losing their moderating power. What will replace them?

Section: 1, Chapter: 7

Book: Wanting

Author: Luke Burgis

Free Will In An Age Of Algorithms

One of the foundations of modern humanism is the idea of free will. But as science advances, that notion is increasingly under threat:

  1. Neuroscience suggests that our thoughts and decisions are the product of neural activity governed by the laws of physics, not some ethereal "will"
  2. Behavioral economics and psychology have shown that our choices are often irrational and shaped by unconscious biases and environmental cues
  3. Big data analytics can predict our actions based on past patterns, turning our behavior into a probability equation
  4. Advances in genetics highlight the role of inborn traits and predispositions in shaping who we become

In light of these discoveries, the line between free choice and determinism becomes blurred. And as artificial intelligence grows more sophisticated, even the appearance of choice may disappear.

Section: 3, Chapter: 8

Book: Homo Deus

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

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