Superforecasting Book Summary
The Art and Science of Prediction
Book by Philip Tetlock
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Summary
In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner reveal the techniques used by elite forecasters to predict future events with remarkable accuracy, and show how these skills can be cultivated by anyone to make better decisions in an uncertain world.
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These are the best quotes from Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock. If you want to read a full summary of this book for free, click here.
"We Are All Forecasters"
"We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecasts."
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
"Diversity Matters As Much As Ability"
"What matters is having people who think differently and have different points of information, and this is really important. Having a group of really smart people who tend to see the world the same way and process information the same way isn't nearly as effective as a more diverse team." - Jonathan Baron
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
"When Facts Change, I Change My Mind."
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
This famous quote from John Maynard Keynes, encapsulates a core principle of superforecasting. Strong views, weakly held, are a virtue.
Unfortunately, most forecasters are slow to change their minds, even when the facts turn against them. In 2010, many economists warned that aggressive Fed policies risked runaway inflation. Years later, inflation hadn't appeared. Yet rather than admit error and update their models, most doubled down on their warnings.
That's a fatal error. The world changes. Surprises happen. New facts emerge. Superforecasters are always alert to how reality differs from their expectations. When gaps appear, they ask "why?" and eagerly revise their beliefs. They treat their opinions not as sacred possessions, but as temporary best guesses, always open to change.
Section: 1, Chapter: 7
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