Thinking in Bets: Quotes
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book by Annie Duke
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Summary
In "Thinking in Bets," Annie Duke draws on her experience as a professional poker player to share strategies for making sound decisions under uncertainty, such as thinking probabilistically, learning from outcomes, surrounding yourself with truthseeking groups, and using mental time travel to pressure-test beliefs and plans.
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These are the best quotes from Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. If you want to read a full summary of this book for free, click here.
"Beliefs Are Like A Large Pile Of Matches, Not Cards"
"Beliefs, in most cases, aren't like cards that can be flipped easily when the facts change. Beliefs are like a large pile of matches that can ignite at the slightest provocation. Unlike cards, matches are hard to extinguish once they get going. We can keep throwing more and more facts on the fire and yet, in the face of the evidence, the beliefs remain ablaze."
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
"Outcomes Don't Tell Us What's Our Fault And What Isn't"
"Outcomes don't tell us what's our fault and what isn't, what we should take credit for and what we shouldn't. Outcomes are rarely the result of our decision quality alone or chance alone, and outcome quality is not a perfect indicator of the influence of luck or skill. When it comes to fielding outcomes, we tend to focus on the quality of the outcome as the deciding factor between luck and skill."
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Why We Should Express Confidence In Degrees
"When we express our beliefs (to others or just to ourselves as part of our internal decision-making dialogue), they don't generally come with qualifications. What if, in addition to expressing what we believe, we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would mean we are certain that our belief is true. A zero-to-ten scale translates directly to percentages."
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
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